The Chicago Cubs Will Win the 2016 World Series

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View from the Wrigley Field Bleachers, 2008. Photo by Jim Flannery

After a 108-year drought, 2016 is the year when the Chicago Cubs will finally reach the promised land and win the World Series.

It’s a simple case of economics.

Since the last Major League work stoppage wiped out the 1994 World Series, the team with the highest payroll in the Majors has appeared in the World Series six times, winning four (not at all surprisingly, the New York yankees were that team every single time). Of the 36 other teams to make it to the Series in that time, 11 were in the Top 5 in payroll and another 10 were in the Top 10. That’s fully 64 percent of the teams in the World Series over the last two decades.

The team that has won the World Series in those years has been the team with the highest payroll 15 times in 21 seasons, a 71 percent success rate.

Which brings us to the 2016 World Series. According to Spotrac.com, the Cubs have the fifth-highest payroll in baseball, at $186,402,394, while the Cleveland Indians are down at 21st place, with just $114,707,868 in payroll, which also makes them just the fourth team since 1995 to get to the Series and be in the bottom 10 in the league in payroll.

Obviously, the Cubs have finally figured out a way to win—spend a shit-ton of money on talent. Are they guaranteed a win? No. The Florida Marlins proved in 2003 that sometimes David can have a better seven-game run than Goliath by beating the big, bad Yankees. But don’t count on the Indians taking this series, even with it currently tied at 1-1. Chicago has simply invested too much money in this team to lose at this point.

 

Follow me on Twitter @lethbridgejimbo

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